Who gets the clicks for HVAC in Bismarck, ND (and why roofing looks so different)

Every local market has its own shape. In some trades, one company owns the map across the whole town. In others, the top spot changes every few blocks and a newer business can break in. Here's what that looks like in one real market.

What we checked

On October 14, 2026 we checked Google Maps rankings around Bismarck and Mandan, North Dakota, for two searches: "hvac" and "roofing contractor." For each of 9 local HVAC companies and 7 roofing companies, we searched from five points: the business's own address and points to the south, west, east and north of it. That's 45 points for HVAC and 35 for roofing, clustered around those businesses' locations. At each point we recorded the top 5 businesses Google showed.

To turn rankings into something closer to calls, we estimated each business's share of clicks from its position at each point. Google doesn't publish click rates, so these shares are estimates based on how clicks are typically divided by position in map results. The first result is estimated at about 30% of clicks, the second about 20%, the third about 15%, the fourth 10% and the fifth 8%. That leaves about 17% for positions 6 and lower, which we didn't record. We've left business names out. The pattern is what matters.

HVAC: one company leads almost everywhere

Seventeen different HVAC businesses appeared in the top 5 somewhere around town. But the clicks were concentrated:

Three things stand out:

The leader is far ahead on reviews, and it shows. With roughly three times the reviews of anyone else, it ranked first at about 7 of every 10 points we checked, including points next to its competitors' own shops.

Smaller companies still win pockets. A company with only 34 reviews ranked first at 5 points in one part of town, ahead of the leader there. Distance gives smaller businesses a foothold, even against a giant.

Great reviews alone don't win. A company with about 240 reviews and a perfect 5.0 rating never ranked first at any of the 45 points. Its estimated share was about 3%. Rating and review count help, but category, profile strength and location decide a lot. See what the #1 Google Maps business has.

Roofing: wide open

Roofing in the same town looked completely different. Seventeen businesses appeared in the top 5, and no one dominated:

The top three together took an estimated 45% of clicks, against 57% in HVAC. The business ranked first at the most points had about 90 reviews. And a roofer with just 22 reviews (all five stars) appeared in the top 5 at 24 of the 35 points and earned an estimated 8% of clicks.

In a market like this, a well-run profile with steady reviews can move up quickly, because no one has locked it up.

What this means if you're in a market like this

• In a concentrated market (like HVAC here), don't try to beat the leader everywhere at once. Win your own area first, where distance is on your side, then expand. Reviews matter, but so do category, services and a website with real service and town pages.
• In an open market (like roofing here), the gap between fifth and first is small. Consistent reviews, an active profile and the right category can change your share within months.
• Either way, look at the whole map. Who is first at your shop tells you almost nothing about who is getting the calls across town. Here's why rankings change across town.

See your own market

The free KarpOS audit runs the same kind of check for your business: your rank across your area for up to three searches, the businesses ahead of you at each point, and how much search demand there is for your trade nearby.

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